CS2 Skin Market Crash: What Happened To Knife & Glove Prices?
Disclaimer: Nothing in this article constitutes trading or legal advice. The author is not a legal professional, and any discussion of CS2 skin ownership is provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as legal advice.
Seemingly out of nowhere, Valve released a Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) update on October 23, 2025, that devastated the cosmetic item (skins) market. The patch caused the prices of many “exceedingly rare special items”—Knives and Gloves in particular—to nosedive, inflicting enormous financial losses on investors.
In this article, we’ll discuss exactly how the CS2 skins market crashed, including the steep drop in Knife, Glove, and Covert (red) quality item prices, vital market X-factors, and who exactly owns all CS2 cosmetics.
- 1. The Infamous CS2 Trade Up Change
- 2. CS2 Skins Market Crashes And Price Impacts
- CS2 Knives And Gloves Prices Go Down
- CS2 Covert Skin Prices Rise
- 3. The CS2 Skins Market Long-Term X-Factors
- Confidence In Valve: Bearish Outlook
- Trade Up Limitations: A Bullish Outlook
- Ownership Of CS2 Skins Explained
- 4. FAQs
- 5. References
The Infamous CS2 Trade Up Change
On October 23, 2025, Valve announced the return of Retakes—a fast-paced 4v3 after-plant scenario game mode. The announcement itself made no mention of changes to the skins system, but buried within the patch notes were the following lines:
Extended functionality of the “Trade Up Contract” to allow exchanging 5 items of Covert quality as follows:
- 5 StatTrak™ Covert items can be exchanged for one StatTrak™ Knife from a collection of one of the items provided.
- 5 regular Covert items can be exchanged for one regular Knife item or one regular Gloves item from a collection of one of the items provided.
This meant that any CS2 player could now trade five Covert quality items for an “exceedingly rare and special” item: a Knife or Gloves. As soon as the update went live, chaos erupted in the CS2 skins market.
CS2 Skins Market Crashes And Price Impacts
According to data from Price Empire, the CS2 skins market crashed hard. On October 23, the market cap was around $6 billion and dropped by $1.7 billion the same day the update was released—a collapse comparable (in digital terms) to the sudden shock of the 2008 housing market crash.
The CS2 skins market cap bottomed at $3.5 billion on October 26, and recovered to roughly $4 billion at the time of writing on October 27. Between October 20 and October 27, the CS2 skins market cap decreased by 33.69%.
The nosedive can be attributed to the influx of new Knives and Gloves flooding the marketplace, which slashed their perceived value. As panic set in, many gamers began offloading their inventories to cut losses, while others scrambled to buy up Covert skins for mass Trade Ups.
CS2 Knives And Gloves Prices Go Down
Since the update allowed players to Trade Up their Covert quality skins to Knives or Gloves, the prices of these items fell sharply. The sell prices of most Knives and Gloves, known as “exceedingly rare special items” in containers, dropped by at least 50% after the update hit live servers.
For example, the image below shows the value graph for a Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) on the Steam Marketplace. The skin’s price dropped from $1,300 to $480 in less than a day, reflecting nearly a two-thirds devaluation (-63.1%) before eventually stabilizing.
CS2 Covert Skin Prices Rise
It’s not all doom and gloom for the CS2 skin market, though. The prices of Covert skins have skyrocketed, especially those that were previously more affordable. In fact, many Covert skins have seen value increases of between 500% and 2,000%.
For example, the P90 Asiimov (Well-Worn) on the Steam Marketplace sold for roughly $8 before the update, but now, its market price is between $140 and $150. That’s an increase of approximately 1,800%!
The CS2 Skins Market Long-Term X-Factors
Two key forces could shape the future of the CS2 skins market—for better or worse: player confidence in Valve and the limited scope of Trade Up opportunities.
Confidence In Valve: Bearish Outlook
The update shattered the CS2 skin market, triggering a historic plunge in Knife and Glove prices. It also highlighted a harsh reality: that Valve can make sweeping changes to CS2 that can devastate inventory values without warning. That uncertainty has shaken investor confidence across the board.
In the long run, a lack of confidence in Valve’s ability to “protect” investments and avoid such updates can lead to a bearish outlook. After all, what stops Valve from dropping another life-altering update overnight? Unfortunately for investors, the answer is simple: nothing.
Trade Up Limitations: A Bullish Outlook
However, there’s also a good reason to believe the market will stabilize (and possibly even thrive) as the dust settles. And this isn’t based on a “gut feeling,” either, but rather on mathematical principles that support a long-term bullish outlook.
According to an analysis by CSFloat, an advanced third-party CS2 skins marketplace, there are roughly 29 million Covert skins in total. If every Covert skin is used in Trade Up (an improbable occurrence), the number of Knives and Gloves on the market will double, from ~5.5 million to 11 million.
Considering that Knives and Gloves could only double in the worst-case scenario for traders, the CS2 skins market should stabilize over time, with value split more evenly between Knives or Gloves and Covert items.
Ownership Of CS2 Skins Explained
Now, an investor might ask: “How can Valve do this to my skins?” Considering some inventories are worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, that’s a fair question—with a devastatingly short answer: You don’t technically own the skins.
According to the Steam Subscriber Agreement (SSA), “Content and Services” refers to any product that you can purchase or sell on Steam, including but not limited to games, DLCs (e.g., battle passes or expansions), and, most importantly, inventory items.
In Section 2.A of the SSA, Valve clearly states:
“The Content and Services are licensed, not sold. Your license confers no title or ownership in the Content and Services.”
Section 2.F reiterates that Steam users do not have ownership rights:
“All title, ownership rights and intellectual property rights in and to the Content and Services and any and all copies thereof, are owned by Valve and/or its affiliates’ licensors.”
Section 3.D states that Valve does not have “any obligation” to provide or even maintain a subscription marketplace, and can make changes. Furthermore, Valve does not recognize any transfers made outside of the Steam platform.
In simple terms, this means Valve technically owns the CS2 skins in your Steam inventory and is free to change or remove them whenever it sees fit.
FAQs
As of October 27, 2025, Valve has provided no official comment (beyond the patch notes) on the Trade Up change or its subsequent market impact.
The impact of Valve’s update was felt immediately, with an estimated $2 billion drop in market cap value from October 23 to 26.
As far as experts can tell, no one, including the largest third-party trading hubs, was aware of the Trade Up change before Valve announced it.
The best skin investments before the update would have been low-priced Covert quality items. That train has left the station, though, as Covert item prices have spiked significantly. The CS2 skins market fluctuates daily, so it’s impossible to say for sure which items you should invest in.
The CS2 knife market is exceptionally volatile. It’s not only about the current price trajectory, but also about trust in Valve. Saying that, however, Knife prices do have the potential to stabilize and could go up again once Covert items become scarcer.
References
- Re-Retakes (Counter-Strike)
- Counter-Strike 2 Update (Counter-Strike)
- Steam Subscriber Agreement (Steam Store)
