Finding value bets in esports is all about spotting opportunities where bookmakers might be underestimating the likelihood of an outcome; therefore, they offer better odds than they should. 

In this guide, we’ll go over how you can spot value bets, the maths behind the bets, and top tips on how to find some great value bets.

What Is a Value Bet?

A value bet is a wager placed when the probability of an outcome happening is higher than what the bookmaker listed their odds at. Value bets are about finding situations in which a bookie has undervalued a team or a player in a match or a specific market.

This allows you to bet at a price that offers much higher profit potential. Value betting is a concept that’s used in all sports (such as football, tennis, NFL, etc.), but it’s especially effective in esports betting. 

That’s because esports are much faster-paced compared to other sports. There are constant changes in esports, whether it’s new talent emerging and beating the favourites, team rosters changing, or the meta shifting in an update.

How Can I Find Value Bets in Esports?

Finding value bets in esports can be tricky. However, it’s also about good statistical analysis, game knowledge, and understanding the available betting markets. 

Even if you think you’ve got the hang of it, one new update can turn the meta completely on its head. So to find value bets in esports, you should conduct thorough research and act quickly to secure potential value. If you react slowly, then it’s more than likely that your chosen esports betting site will shorten the odds of a betting market if it’s priced shorter elsewhere. 

How To Calculate the Value of a Bet

You can calculate the value of a bet to determine whether the odds offered by a bookie are higher than the actual probability of the bet winning. 

So, to do this calculation, you need two things:

🤔 Your own estimated probability of the event happening

📈 The odds from the bookmaker

First of all, you need to convert the bookie’s odds into implied probability. In other words, you’re looking for what the bookie believes the chances are of an event happening.

For decimal odds, the formula is 1 ÷ odds x 100. For example, if the odds are 2.50, the implied probability of the odds is 1 ÷ 2.50 x 100 = 40%.

Next, compare this implied probability to your assessment of the event. If you believe the real chance of the event occurring is 50% (but the bookie suggests 40%), that’s a positive value bet. Here’s what you need to do with that:

Value = (Your Probability x Decimal Odds) – 1

If the result is higher than 0, the bet has value. For example, if your probability is 50% (or 0.5) and the odds are 2.50:

(0.5 x 2.50) – 1 = 0.25

So, 0.25 is a positive value, indicating a good value bet. It means the bookmaker is underestimating the likelihood of the event happening, and there’s potential to get a profitable edge.

Examples of Finding Value Bets in Esports

Now that you have an idea of what value betting is and how it works, it’s time to look at some examples. 

CS2: Team Liquid to win (+150) – closes at +110

You spot Team Liquid’s odds for their upcoming CS2 match at +150. Based on your research, you know that the odds of them winning the game are better than that, so you place your bet at the odds of +150, banking on the odds shifting in your favor. 

By the time it gets to match day, the odds have improved to +110, so the market now agrees with you that Team Liquid has a better chance of winning than what they initially implied.

Calculations:

Early profit at +150: $100 × (150/100) = $150

Closing profit at +110: $100 × (110/100) = $110

Additional profit: $40

VALORANT: G2 Esports to win (-120) – closes at -160

You spot a VALORANT Champions bet with G2 Esports sitting on odds of -120. However, you predict that their chances of winning the match are better than the odds suggest, due to the roster their opponent has available. 

As the team news unfolds closer to match day, the odds change to -160, agreeing with your prediction.

Calculations:

Early profit at -120: $100 × (100/120) = $83.33

Closing profit at -160: $100 × (100/160) = $62.50

Additional profit: $20.83

League of Legends: Fnatic to win (+200) – closes at +170 

In a League of Legends World Championship match, you back Fnatic to win with odds of +200. They have a couple of great matches and hit their stride with a win streak. 

On match day, their odds of winning improve to +170 because of their recent form, which gives you an edge since you are locked in at odds of +200. 

Calculations:

Early profit at +200: $100 × (200/100) = $200

Closing profit at +170: $100 × (170/100) = $170

Additional profit: $30

Top Tips for Finding Value in Esports Betting

Finding value bets in esports isn’t just blind luck. It ultimately comes down to strategy and experience. The best way to approach these bets is to flip from a bettor to an investor mindset. Here are a couple of tips to help you do that:

💡 Place your bets early: When the odds open up, they often start with some difference in market valuation compared to their final closing line on match day. The closer you get to the match, the more the odds will shift. 

💡 Keep track of your data and results: While doing thorough research is important, nothing beats your own experience. Over time, you’ll get to know an esports title, a team, or a player well. 

💡 Specialise in a single game or league: The more you zone in on one esports title, the better your chances become of building your knowledge in that game or league. 

💡 Shop around to find the best odds: Make sure you check out the odds at a couple of different bookies before you place your bet. Try using an odds comparison tool to make this process quicker and easier.

💡 Manage your bankroll: Make sure to risk only a small percentage of your account per wager to minimize potential losses. Responsible gambling will keep you in the game even if you hit some losing streaks.

💡 Find good information sources: Always have the latest news and information, and make sure you get it from a reliable source. 

Mistakes to Avoid When Finding Value Bets

Even experienced bettors can struggle to find good value bets. And they often slip up when betting on washers they think are value bets. Here are some common mistakes that could help you avoid frustration:

❌ Overestimating the value bet. Just because you’re a fan of a player or a team doesn’t mean the market’s odds are wrong.

❌ Reign in your stakes. Betting too much on a match that you’re very sure of is a quick way to wipe out your account.

❌ Don’t blindly place your bets. Odds will shift all the time, and that doesn’t always mean there’s money to be made. It’s more important to understand why the lines are moving before you place your wager.

Conclusion

Finding value bets is all about identifying great odds early and placing your wager before the market adjusts. This allows you to lock in extra profit since you placed your bet at better odds compared to bettors who bet closer to the start of a game.

To successfully find value bets, you need to understand how betting odds work, analyse stats and past results, and build your knowledge on one specific esports game or esports tournament. This will put you in a strong position to find value bets and increase your profits from your wins.

FAQs

What is value betting in esports?

Value betting is when you place a bet because a bookmaker’s odds underestimate the true probability of an outcome. This gives you a better price for the bet before the market odds change.

How to calculate the value of a bet?

To calculate value, you first need to convert the bookmaker’s odds into implied probability. Then you compare it to your own estimated probability. If your chance of winning is higher than the bookie’s implied probability, you have a value bet.

Is value betting legal?

Yes, value betting is simply a strategy that bettors use to take advantage of early market odds that underprice their picks. As long as you are betting with a licensed bookie in your region, and esports betting is legal in your local area, it’s completely legal.

How to place a value bet?

First, you need to identify an opportunity using your research and confirm that the odds offer value to your bet. Then, place a stake on the bet early on (like you would with a normal bet). You’re simply placing your bet early, before the market odds shift to become more expensive.

What are the best tools to identify value bets in esports?

If you’re hunting value bets, tools that can help you are odds comparison sites, real-time line trackers, and esports stats.