Implied probability is a concept that has a huge impact on how you judge the value of a bet. It’s something that you often hear about, but most bettors don’t stop to properly unpack this concept. 

In this guide, we’ll break down what implied probability means, how it’s calculated, and dive into some examples for practical esports insights.

What is Implied Probability in Esports?

In esports betting, implied probability is the percentage chance a sportsbook assigns to an outcome based on the odds they set. This percentage tells you how likely the bookie thinks a specific result is. 

In esports, this outcome (or result) can range from a team winning in CS2, a squad taking first blood in League of Legends, or the first team to score in an EA FC match. Due to esports matches being unpredictable and fast-paced, implied probability helps you translate odds that are constantly changing into something that’s easier to understand.

Converting odds into implied probability helps you to compare the bookmaker’s odds with your own analysis. If your research shows that a team has a higher chance of winning than the implied percentage, you might get some good value from the bet. If the implied probability seems higher (inflated), it could be a signal that the odds aren’t worth taking.

How to Calculate Implied Probability

You can calculate the implied probability by converting betting odds into a percentage. This percentage will show you how likely the outcome is to occur (based on the odds you’re given). 

For American odds, the formula changes depending on whether the odds are positive or negative.

In case you’re wondering, ‘odds absolute value’ simply means the number without the minus sign. So in the example above, the absolute value for -150 would simply be 150.

Let’s use some numbers in an example, rather than a formula:

• The +200 odds convert to 33.33% implied probability
• This means there’s a 33.33% chance of the outcome being correct
• Odds of -200 convert to 67.67% – a much better chance of the outcome occurring

Knowing these numbers can help you understand whether a price offers real value based on your own research and expectations.

If math isn’t your strong suit, there are plenty of sportsbooks and esports betting sites that offer implied probability calculators. These calculators can do the conversion instantly for you. Always take advantage of the calculators or the manual conversion to translate odds into an easily understandable format.

Betting Odds & Implied Probability

Betting odds and implied probability are directly connected. The odds you see on a sportsbook are simply another way of expressing the bookmaker’s estimated chances of an outcome being correct. 

In esports betting, every set of odds already includes a built-in percentage that reflects how likely the bookie thinks that result is. Implied probability simply translates these odds into a clear number you can compare with your own expectations.

So, if the implied probability suggests a team has a 40% chance of winning their match in VALORANT, but your research is pointing closer to 55%, the odds could be great value for you. However, if the implied probability seems too high compared to what you know about the current player form, meta changes, or map picks, the price might not be worth taking.

Implied Probability in Esports Examples

We’ve covered the theory, let’s look at the concept in practice. Implied probability becomes much easier to understand once you see how it works with real esports odds. 

These examples show how converting odds into percentages helps you judge whether the sportsbook’s expectations match yours based on the research you’ve done.

Match winner bet in CS2

If Astralis is listed at +200 to win a CS2 map, the implied probability is 100 / (200 + 100) = 33.33%. This means the sportsbook thinks Astralis has a (roughly) one in three chance of winning this map, or they win this map one out of three times. 

If your analysis suggests that they’re actually closer to a 45% chance of winning based on the map pool and their recent form, the price the bookie is offering could be good value for you to bet on.

League of Legends first blood bet

If T1 is priced at -150 to get first blood in a match, the implied probability is 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%. So, the bookmaker expects T1 to get first blood in 6 out of 10 games, or they have 6 out of 10 chance of getting first blood. 

If you’ve been keeping up with their recent matches and you noticed their early-game aggression has dropped after a recent shift in the meta, you might decide the odds are too high for the chance of success – and aren’t favorable for you.

Mistakes to Avoid When Calculating Implied Probability 

Implied probability is straightforward once you get the hang of it. Below, we’ll unpack some of the most common traps you might fall into when using implied probability calculations to analyse bets.

⚠️ Using the wrong formula for positive and negative odds: The positive and negative formulas are quite similar, and it can be easy to confuse them. Mixing them up will give you the wrong percentage, which will lead to some confusion and ultimately the wrong bet being placed.

⚠️ Forgetting to remove the minus sign on negative odds: When you’re calculating negative odds, you’re using the absolute value. This means you remove the minus sign in front of the number, then do the calculation. If you’ve still got the minus sign in the formula, you’ll get the wrong result.

⚠️ Not converting the final number into a percentage: It can be tempting to stop when you get the decimal value, but you need to make sure that your implied probability calculation comes out as a percentage to compare it properly with your own predictions.

⚠️ Ignoring bookmaker margin: Odds don’t represent true probability because sportsbooks always build in profit. If you skip accounting for the profit, the percentages may not add up to 100%.

⚠️ Looking at implied probability without doing your own research: In order for the implied probability concept to be effective, you need to have your own percentage in mind. The calculation only tells you what the bookie thinks, so if you’re not comparing the number to your own, it won’t be useful.

Conclusion

Implied probability is one of the most valuable tools you can use in esports betting. It can be used in all esports including Dota 2, League of Legends and Fortnite. 

Understanding how implied probability works and why it’s important can help you to analyse odds much easier and decide whether they are worth backing or not. 

Fortunately, you don’t need to know the formulas by heart, or even calculate them yourself. Several betting sites and sportsbooks offer implied probability calculators that can convert the odds for you in seconds.

As always, remember it’s important to gamble responsibly. Implied probability does not guarantee results. Make sure you stick to licensed sportsbooks and only wager what you can afford to lose.

FAQs

What is a good implied probability in esports betting?

A ‘good’ implied probability depends on whether the odds undervalue the team or player you’re betting on. If your research shows their real chance of winning is higher than the implied probability, the bet might offer value and be considered good.

What does +200 odds to win mean?

Inbetting, +200 odds indicate an implied probability of 33.33%. This means the sportsbook expects the team or player to have a one in three chance of winning (or win roughly one out of three times). 

What is 20% probability in odds?

A 20% implied probability converts to roughly +400 in American odds. This means the bookmaker believes the outcome will happen one in five times (or a one in five chance of happening).

How to calculate implied probability from odds?

For positive odds: implied probability = 100 / (odds + 100)

For negative odds: implied probability = absolute value of odds / (absolute value of odds + 100).