ESL One Hamburg 2018 Playoffs predictions

Dota 2
October 26, 2018
Radu Muresan

The Playoffs Stage of ESL One Hamburg 2018 is already underway and over the next 3 days we will find out who the winner is. The result will not weigh anything in the race for The International 2019, but it will still give us some much needed clues as to what the pecking order is right now in terms of global rankings.

Group Stage results

The results after the Group Stage of ESL One Hamburg 2018 were somewhat surprising, but for the most part all the usual suspects have advanced into the Playoffs.

Group A

  • Team Secret (8 W – 2 L)
  • Vici Gaming (8 W – 2 L)
  • Evil Geniuses (5 W – 5 L)
  • paiN Gaming (4 W – 6 L)
  • Alliance (3 W – 7 L)
  • Mineski (2 W – 8 L)

Group B

  • Team Aster (9 W – 1 L)
  • Virtus.pro (8 W – 2 L)
  • Forward Gaming (5 W – 5 L)
  • compLexity Gaming (4 W – 6 L)
  • Ninjas in Pyjamas (3 W – 7 L)
  • EVOS Esports (1 W – 9 L)

Betting predictions

These are my betting predictions for the next 2 matches of ESL One Hamburg 2018.

Forward Gaming vs. paiN Gaming

Forward Gaming finished 3rd in Group B and is the only team that managed to steal a game from Aster during the Group Stage. The team’s roster is absolutely top notch and its past results are also impressive if we consider that this is almost entirely the former VGJ.Storm roster that won 2nd place in a Major and got many other top results in 2017-2018.

paiN Gaming is also a fairly strong team, especially now, in its current format. Both w33 and MISERY have shaped the play style of the squad for the better, introducing it to some of the best tactics and strategies in the game. Their wealth of experience has no doubt helped the Brazillian side to go up in world rankings.

Betway puts the odds for this match at 1.45 – 2.55 in favor of Forward Gaming and this is absolutely accurate. The match will likely require 3 games to be decided, but I do expect Forward Gaming to win in the end.

Betting prediction: Forward Gaming to win.

forward-gaming-esl-one-hamburg-playoff

© ESL One

Virtus.pro vs. Vici Gaming

Virtus.pro finished 5th – 6th at The International 2018 and is one of the strongest competitors at this event. In the Group Stage of ESL One Hamburg 2018, VP lost against Team Aster but won the rest of its matches, finishing 2nd in Group B with 8 wins and 2 losses.

On the other side, Vici Gaming finished the Dota Pro Circuit in 6th place last year and then went on to place 9th – 12th at TI 8. The team has a very strong roster and a lot of potential, and so far it proved to be fully capable of beating any team at this tournament. In the Group Stage, VG finished 1st in Group A with the same number of points as Team Secret (8 W – 2 L). In its first Upper Bracket match, VG defeated Team Aster, which was regarded as the strongest team at ESL One Hamburg 2018 after the Group Stage. So we’re likely to see a very close match between VP and VG.

Betway puts the odds for this match at 1.55 – 2.30 in favor of Virtus.pro, regarding the CIS team as the clear favorite to win this match. While I do agree that VP is probably the better side here, I do not believe these odds are accurate at all. Keep in mind that VP lost against Aster and VG defeated it at this tournament. That’s a pretty strong indicator that VG might be considerably better than most people believe. And at these odds, a smaller bet on Vici Gaming is actually the wiser choice.

Betting prediction: Vici Gaming to win (45-50% upset chance).

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