ESL One Cologne 2020 kicks off today in both Europe and North America. The 24 teams from both regions combined are all part of the Top 30 on the global ranking list. Online play and shifting tournament formats during the 2020 season have caused most of the regular strength curves and ways of analysis to go down the drain.
What we are left with are 24 teams adapting to online play and a plethora of unknowns. With that in mind, lets take a look at all the participants and likely outcomes at ESL One Cologne 2020.
© ESL Cologne 2020
The original ESL One Cologne event was scheduled for July 10th through 12th 2020 at the Lanxsess Arena. Due to obvious reasons, the event was scrapped and replaced with four regional events in North America, Europe, Oceania and Asia. The OCE and Asia events kick off next week and we will cover them at a later date.
The EU and NA events however kick off today. EU features 16 teams while NA has 8. Both regions divided their teams into two groups, pitting them in a double-elimination bracket with the top performers moving forward. Four teams from each group advance in the European Regional event, and two teams per group in the North American Regional. You can familiarize yourself with the teams and groups at ESL’s Official Cologne 2020 Page.
Assuming you looked at all participants in Europe and North America its time to breakdown the strength curves of the participants and their win conditions. We will divide the teams into three groups based on Map Choice, Player Performance or Hybrid.
It’s an established fact teams map choice plays a big role in their performance. Additionally, individual performs can dictate and entire teams play-style and performance in any given match. Finally, some teams rely on both of this factors to be on their side for them to win.
There is a large group of teams in both NA and EU that depend heavily on the map choice. These teams have the benefit of having a consistent lineup that performs at a baseline level in all scenarios. They do however perform well on only a specific set on maps, and really poorly on the others. In this group are Vitality, Complexity and OG from Europe and EG, 100T and Cloud9 in North America.
To identify a winner in scenarios where these teams are involved you need to have good knowledge of their individual map performance and the performance on the same map by their opponents. Most of the information is available even within the live betting system at most esports betting sites.
Player dependent teams are numerous and this group consists of some of the most legendary names in CSGO. Teams like Fnatic, Astralis, Natus Vincere and mousesports are all on this list. On the North American side, Team Liquid and Gen.G slot into this group as well.
We can take numerous examples from any of this teams. S1mple and Electronic for NaVi, flusha and Golden for Fnatic or Magic and dev1ce for Astralis. At least two players need to be performing at their level for the team to win. If one of the core fraggers on the team doesn’t perform well these teams might flop a map to a very weak opponent like BiG.
When it comes to CSGO betting, the specific map choice doesn’t matter as much for this teams as they are well prepared on all maps. Its the event performance or individual performance on the day that will determine most outcomes.
This group is the “worst” of all categories. Not only does a team need a preferential map pick, but they also need all the individuals to perform at their absolute peak for them to win a match. In the European event this group consists of Heroic, Heretics, NiP and Sprout.
Lets take NiP as an example. They perform exceedingly well on Train and Mirage but are lackluster in their coordination on all other map picks. Additionally, Plopski and Twist have to be performing well for the team to have a shot at winning. With these factors combined you can only expect NiP to win on their Train pick and only if they are having a good day. Do keep in mind that NiP might win train off stronger teams even when the odds do not favor them.
Individual match by match predictions will be hard to pull off at ESL Cologne. Most of the participants have had a very limited schedule and online play has hindered many top teams during this season. General predictions are easier to make. Outrights and exotic markets are also a solid betting tactic.
Both Gen.G and Evil Geniuses are solid outright picks for the North American portion of the event. At 7.5 and 4 coefficient returns on both teams respectively you are set to gain at least a two-fold return on your investment. European outright bets should be avoided as the region is generally in turmoil this summer with rankings being skewed and teams under-performing greatly.
Individual bets for first pistol round winners and total rounds are also a solid choice especially on standardized performers. You can always bet on NaVi for example to have a high round count regardless of the match outcome, as per tradition NaVi pushes themselves and doesn’t fold matches easily. FaZe clan is a strong pistol round team meaning you can always pick them to win opening rounds in both halves.
The interesting thing about Cologne 2020 is that it is a Premier event played in an Online setting. Most of your usual predictions and favorites might flop easily and most of the CSGO odds are inaccurate. This gives great opportunity for specific bets or even arbitrage betting.
Back in June, GG.Bet became ESL’s global betting partner for the entire lineup of CS:GO events. The provider now features all of the Cologne match-ups across all regions, paired with exclusive exotic markets and in-play live betting. As the official partner, GG.bet’s offers are ones you should definitely take a look at.
Luckbox is also on the Cologne 2020 hype train. Take it from Metodi Zaburtov, the sportsbook director at Luckbox:
“Our typical welcome offer is 100%, which is very generous, but throughout ESL One Cologne, we are doubling the bonus.”
And indeed they have. By using code “CSGO200” you are allowed a 200% bonus on your deposit. This code is usable for new and old users alike. Some T&C will apply as is tradition with this type of bonus codes, but do check it out if you want to double your bankroll before bet-slipping.
Finally, do keep in mind that ESL Cologne is here almost two weeks. Don’t go and blow all your bets away on the first round. The odds are likely to shift greatly over the next week as there are plenty of games ahead.
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