LEC Summer Groups – Who is heading to the finals?

After nearly two weeks of break, the top eight teams from the LEC Summer regular split will be facing each other in the Groups stage.

Image Credits | Michal Konkol/Riot Games

LEC Groups Summer Split Preview – Overview

It was quite a hectic split for the EU teams, with unexpected squads fighting for the top and some barely making it into the top eight. Astralis have ended prematurely their 2023 season while Vitality is waiting to see whether they can still make it to the LEC Season Finals.

Among the top eight teams, G2 and MAD have the slightest pressure on themselves since they have already qualified for the last stage that will determine the Worlds 2023 seeds. For the others, though, everything is on the line.

In particular, Team Heretics, XL Esports, and Fnatic will have to hope for a great run to turn around their seasons, after being in the bottom half in two previous splits. Team BDS have had two strong splits so unless they drop the ball heavily this time around, they should make it to the top six. SK and KOI also have lots of points but their form hasn’t been the greatest this season so they will have to show up on the day and get at least into the top four to qualify.

Matches and predictions

With Round 1 starting later today, below you can find the matches for this week 1:

  • XL vs MAD – 18:00 CET – July 15
  • FNC vs SK – 21:00 CET – July 15
  • TH vs BDS – 18:00 CET – July 16
  • G2 vs KOI – 21:00 CET – July 16

The four losers will then face one another in the lower bracket on Monday, July 17, starting from 18:00 CET. Let’s take a look at each match individually and what are the chances of victory for each team.

XL vs MAD Lions

This match runs has quite a high level of volatility, given the two teams that are participating. On paper, XL comes in with a much stronger form, after locking the third place in the regular split and winning their head-to-head with MAD Lions. In comparison, MAD Lions come from a 5-loss streak which can be demoralizing for the squad overall.


Image Credits | Wojciech Wandzel/Riot Games

That being said, MAD find themselves in a similar position to Spring, and we all know how it went last time out. The Spanish organization is known to be much stronger during Bo3 and Bo5 series while this will be the first non-Bo1 official series for XL.

MAD will have to prove that they are not fully relying on Carzzy to be the damage dealer and have at least one between Nisqy and Chasy that can step up and lead the team when necessary. XL have done that with Abbedagge, finding strong success.

Personally, I think the matchup will highly depend on the jungle matchup and whoever has more agency to make things happen on the map. Peach will have a tough test ahead of him against Elyoya but he’s talented enough to make it work. I’m not too sold on MAD currently, so this match is going to be in XL’s favor, at least this time around.

Prediction: XL 52% | MAD 48%

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This matchup is probably going to be the easiest one to predict. Fnatic have completely changed with the arrival of Noah and Trymbi, looking on form and with a clear identity and matching playstyle. For their own fans, it was probably worth waiting for more than half a season. That said, they need to deliver all the way to the end if they still want a shot at Worlds.

Image Credits | Wojciech Wandzel/Riot Games

Going up against SK Gaming, this should be quite an easy series for them. Individually and as a team, FNC have looked a lot more consistent and with higher peak potentials. I don’t see FNC’s bot lane losing against SK’s, and unless Markoon and Sertuss pull off a miracle series, this should be quite a one-sided series.

Prediction: FNC 70% | SK 30% 

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LEC Groups – Group A – BDS vs TH

BDS and Team Heretics have a lot on the line for this series, as it will impact the rest of the run. The loser will have to face the loser between G2 and KOI, so it will be a tricky matchup regardless of who they will face. Even though BDS haven’t repeated their spectacular spring split, they are consistently bringing in decent results every split.

Image Credits | Wojciech Wandzel/Riot Games

The main worrying factor is the volatility the team has whenever things don’t totally work out for them in draft. When BDS gets a draft they are comfortable with, they would play like a top team. If it doesn’t happen, it can turn into a disaster.

In comparison, Team Heretics trades peak potential gameplay with more consistent performances. Flakked and Vetheo have been keys to the team’s success, and with a veteran player like Jankos, TH are looking way different from the past, finally having carry-oriented players to invest resources in. The series is going to be close for me and it’s really a 50-50. TH, though, puts me a little more at ease, so I’m slightly favoring them.

Prediction: BDS 49% | TH 51% 

G2 vs KOI

G2 and FNC were heads and shoulders above everyone else in the LEC Summer regular split so it should be another easy Groups run for G2. Their performance after returning from MSI has been solid, and despite having a few hiccups, they were able to go 8-1 in the regular split. They will be playing knowing that they are already locked in for the Season Finals, so their focus will be on making sure they can get the best preparation for it.

Image Credits | Wojciech Wandzel/Riot Games

By looking at the players and the matchup, KOI would need things to align to get a victory, and even if that were the case, this would definitely go to three games. I don’t see G2 losing in standard conditions, so only a really bad draft preparation would allow KOI to get the series. For KOI, though, getting one game off from G2 would definitely be a strong confidence boost for the following series. If they can show up well in this match, their chances of qualifying through the losers’ bracket will be high.

Prediction: G2 65% | KOI 35%

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