League of Legends Worlds 2020 Post Draw Show Analysis
The Worlds 2020 Draw Show finished a few hours ago with all 22 teams now slotted into their respective groups. Distinct strengths and weaknesses can now be observed in both the Play-in and Group Stage groups.
Lets go through to Play-In groups and what can we expect from the participating teams and then move on to the Group Stage and asses how can teams work their way into the Knock-out stage of LoL Worlds 2020.
Worlds 2020 Play-In Draw
The Play-Ins were quickly settled after the initial six draws were made. Group A and Group B were instantly divided in a regional sense with A being the “western” group and B becoming the “eastern” group. Both groups feature South American teams who are relatively similar stylistically.
If we take the Wildcard teams seriously, Group A is harder to come out of, with SuperMassive and Legacy both having interesting performances in their home regions.
With KaKAO, Snowflower and GBM on SuperMassive’s roster, they are more of a Korean team, than a Turkish team and might even contest Liquid and MAD Lions for a spot in Groups. We are not yet aware how strong Legacy Esports are compared to other regions. This year they have absolutely dominated the OCE region and it is likely the best chance an OPL team can make it out of Play-Ins.
What the wildcard teams will be hoping for in Group A is that Liquid and MAD Lions actually play terrible, as we have very little faith any other team would advance if Liquid/MAD are playing at their peak.
Group B should have LGD Gaming already secured for Group C in the Group Stage after the Worlds 2020 Draw. The LPL should be head and shoulders above the rest of Group B unless we seriously under-rating the wildcard teams.
The 2nd seed from Group B however is up for contest. Based on what we saw in the PCS, PSG Talon are not having easy wins against wildcard regions. The entire PCS (LMS/LST) region has lost their dominance over the past three years and can now be considered on par with most minor regions.
This leaves Unicorns of Love, V3 and R7 all with solid chances of making it forward. The new format also give us some bo5 action between these teams. If UoL are really as dominating as they were domestically this season, we can easily expect them going into groups next to LGD Gaming.
Worlds 2020 Group Draw
The Groups Worlds 2020 Draw is likely the most competitive one to date. With the top three European, Chinese and LCK teams featured, there is very little leeway for teams to play around.
Straight out the gate Group C is the “group of death” and the “group of life” at the same time. TSM, Fnatic, Gen.G and most likely LGD are four very strong contenders from the four main regions. Neither has a clear advantage over the other three, and at the same time the group is the easiest one to advance from. If we are predicting a group of tiebreakers, this group is the one most likely to have them.
Groups B and D are all about LCK/LPL dominance. Both DWG/JD and TES/DRX are top seed match-ups between the two regions. There is little way for FlyQuest and Rogue to battle into the Knock-out stage with these groups. Group D might get MAD Lions added after Play-Ins, while Group B is likely getting Talon if they move forward.
No matter how we see it, these two groups should already be set for Knock-outs. Furthermore, it is almost irrelevant who gets first or second seed, as they are likely meeting an opponent with similar strength from either of the opposing groups.
Finally, Group A is all about G2 Esports. The group will give us a sense of how the LPL and LEC stack up in strength early on. Both G2 and Suning are not famous for their bo1 matches.
Furthermore, neither Suning nor G2 are expected to peak in the Group Stage, making this an interesting “handicap” match for both sides. Machi Esports and most likely Team Liquid are only here to play spoiler and steal games out of the expected group winners.
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Worlds Draw Outlook
Overall, the Worlds 2020 Draw favors the traditional western teams making it out of groups. Furthermore, it pits the top LCK and LPL talent against one another early on in group stage.
When it comes to knockouts however, its not going to get easy for western teams if they make it out. They are guaranteed a match against a top LCK or LPL seed either way. This could mean an early exit for western talent early into the knockout stage.
This all hinges on our expectation that the LCK and LPL are extremely ahead of the LEC and LCS in the LoL Worlds power rankings. With no MSI this year to assist the comparison, we might be surprised how underrated or overrated some regions are.
If you are considering outright LoL Worlds betting stick only to potential tournament winners and region of World Champion, and don’t get bogged down into guessing specific group stage outcomes just yet.
Scrim Leak Plague
Leaking Worlds pre-event scrims happens occasionally, yet this year we are getting scrim leaks almost daily. We already have intel on UOL beating G2 and Fnatic beating Suning very early into the bubble bootcamp.
This is important as it gives us an insight into how players perform individually way before the competition gets going. Make sure you check out the official League of Legends Reddit page for these sort of leaks. They can help you place Outright Bets for World Champions while the odds haven’t been adjusted.